Economic impact assessment for an outbreak of African swine fever in the UK

AHDB is seeking quotes for an economic impact assessment for an outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in the UK. This project forms part of a wider area of work concerned with preparing the UK pig and pork industry for a potential outbreak.

ASF is a viral disease of pigs which is well-established in parts of Europe, Asia and Africa, with a reservoir of infection in the wild boar population. It is transmitted through infected pigs and contaminated pork products. ASF represents a significant and growing threat to the UK pig and pork sector, primarily from the potential introduction of the disease, particularly via illegally imported pork and pork products entering the country through passenger routes and other uncontrolled channels.

AHDB has been working alongside other industry stakeholders and partners over the last several years on ASF prevention and awareness. We are now working to prepare the industry so that it can continue to function as normally as possible should an outbreak occur and recover rapidly thereafter.

In addition to quantifying the economic and productivity impacts of a potential ASF outbreak in the UK, this review is intended to serve as an evidence base for industry representative bodies (e.g. National Pig Association, British Meat Processors' Association, National Farmers' Union) in their engagement with Government and other stakeholders.

A key objective is to evidence the scale of economic risk posed to the UK pig sector and wider agri-food supply chain.

As part of this wider area of work, and in light of the outbreak of ASF in Spain in November 2025, AHDB is looking to update and build on two previous economic impact assessments which it produced in 2018 and 2020.

Estimated value is approx £40k.

Contract start date is 21st September 2026, end date 25th January 2027.

Closing date is Monday 24th August at 12 NOON.

Please email your response to miranda.poulson@ahdb.org.uk