Understanding the environmental impacts of displacing UK agricultural/commodity production

There is increasing pressure on land use in the UK due to demands from housing development and commitments to Net Zero and nature. This, combined with a changing climate, mean there may be less land available for agricultural commodity production within the UK. This may result in a displacement of production overseas.

While there is good evidence on the carbon, biodiversity and other environmental impacts that any given land use change will bring in situ, there is currently no established method of identifying 1) where crops are likely to be grown instead and 2) what impacts this displaced crop growth may have. A way to estimate these could provide evidence that would help guide land use decisions and policy by providing a holistic understanding of both the domestic and international implications of these decisions.

Project Aims

1. To produce an initial interim model that estimates where production would be displaced if a given area of land in the UK, producing a set quantity of a commodity, was no longer used for commodity production. The model will be based on clear and transparent assumptions.
2. To estimate the environmental impacts of production in these new locations. The calculated environmental impacts will ideally map onto those included in the Global Environmental Impacts of Consumption (GEIC) indicator.